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Analistas suben estimación de crecimiento para México a 2.17% en 2019

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Analistas consultados por el Banco de México (Banxico) subieron ligeramente sus expectativas de crecimiento de la economía mexicana para 2019 a 2.17 por ciento desde 2.16 por ciento, luego de tres meses de revisiones a la baja.

De acuerdo con la “Encuesta sobre las expectativas de los especialistas en economía del sector privado” de septiembre pasado, para este año los expertos recortaron marginalmente las expectativas de crecimiento, a 2.13 por ciento desde 2.14 por ciento, su tercera baja al hilo, según la media de los pronósticos.

Sobre la inflación, elevaron su estimación para al cierre de este año a 4.56 por ciento desde 4.41 ciento en la encuesta de agosto pasado, su cuarto mes al alza, y para 2019 también la subieron a 3.80 por ciento respecto al 3.74 por ciento previo, su segundo mes con incremento.

En cuanto al tipo de cambio, los expertos subieron su pronóstico para el cierre de 2018 a 19.03 pesos en septiembre desde 18.92 pesos por dólar en agosto, pero para el siguiente año lo redujeron ligeramente a 18.97 pesos desde 18.98 pesos por dólar.

Consideraron que los factores que podrían obstaculizar el crecimiento económico de México en los próximos seis meses son, en orden de importancia: la incertidumbre de política interna (14 por ciento de las respuestas).

Le siguen, la política sobre comercio exterior (13 por ciento de las respuestas); los problemas de inseguridad pública (12 por ciento de las respuestas); la falta de Estado de Derecho (10 por ciento de las respuestas); y la plataforma de producción petrolera (10 por ciento de las respuestas).

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