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Cuáles serán las 7 megaciudades más pobladas del mundo en 2100

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Algunas ciudades son tan grandes que parecen países.

Apocalípticas, hundidas bajo el mar o llenas de naves espaciales… no importa cómo te las imagines, lo cierto es que en el futuro el explosivo crecimiento poblacional de los centros urbanos cambiará la geografía humana del planeta.

Lo sorprendente es que para el año 2100, las megaciudades que actualmente dominan el ranking de las ciudades más pobladas, caerán abruptamente del Top 10, según un estudio hecho por los académicos Daniel Hoornweg (Universidad de Ontario, Canadá) y Kevin Pope (Universidad Memorial de Newfoundland, Canadá).

Tokio, la ciudad más poblada del mundo, con 36 millones de habitantes, bajará hacia el final del siglo al lugar 28, con solo 25 millones de personas.

Y Ciudad de México, que actualmente se sitúa en el top 5 -con un poco más de 20 millones-, descenderá a la posición 34, con 22 millones habitantes, si la predicción de los investigadores se cumple.

Lagos

Getty Images
Lagos, en Nigeria, será la ciudad más poblada del mundo en 2100.

En su reemplazo ascienden ciudades que quizás no parecen las más obvias candidatas, como Lagos, en Nigeria, Kinshasa, en la República Democrática del Congo, y Dar Es Salaam, en Tanzania, provocando cambios demográficos, migratorios, socioeconómicos, políticos y medioambientales de insospechadas consecuencias.

Ciudades más pobladas en 2100 (millones de habitantes)
Lagos 88
Kinshasa 83
Dar es Salaam 73
Bombay 67
Deli 57
Jartum 56
Niamey 56
Fuente: Hoornweg, Pope

“El peso económico y, presumiblemente, el poder político, se sigue moviendo hacia las grandes ciudades”, le dice a BBC Mundo Daniel Hoornweg, coautor del estudio.

Estas megaciudades, hacen una gigantesca y desproporcionada contribución a la economía local y global, así como a la acumulación de riqueza y contaminación, explica.

Los investigadores utilizaron como base de cálculo las cifras de población del Banco Mundialdisponibles para el año 2006 y en las actualizaciones posteriores han mantenido esa misma base para no alterar el punto de origen.

Sus estadísticas difieren de aquellas publicadas por la ONU, ya que utilizan metodologías distintas en relación al año base de cálculo y de la definición de “ciudad” en términos de sus límites geográficos.

Considerando esos distintos criterios, la ONU publicó en su informe “2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects” que actualmente la ciudad más poblada es Tokio con 37 millones de habitantes, seguida de Nueva Delhi con 29 millones y Shanghái con 26 millones.

Mientras, Ciudad de México y Sao Paulo bordean los 22 millones de personas.

El cambio de tendencia

Si uno mira la tendencia, históricamente las ciudades más grandes del mundo han jugado un papel clave en el terreno económico. Sin embargo, el futuro parece más bien incierto.

“Existe el temor de que las ciudades africanas sean la excepción. Que crezcan en cantidad de población, sin un crecimiento proporcional de la economía”, dice Hoornweg.

Algo que podría ser extremadamente riesgoso para la calidad de vida de sus habitantes.

Mirando grandes tendencias a nivel global, a medida que avance este siglo se produciría “un desplazamiento del poder político desde la OCDE hacia Asia (primero al este y después al sur) y luego hacia África”.

Niña bebiendo agua.

Getty Images
Hacia 2030 comienza un declive en la población de las ciudades chinas y un aumento de las africanas.

El estudio plantea que para el año 2050 ninguna ciudad China estará en el Top 10 y que para el año 2075 también salen de esa lista Sao Paulo y Ciudad de México.

¿Y por qué cambia tanto el ranking?

“Es que todos los países llegan a un máximo de población, que se explica por una relación entre la tasa de nacimientos y la inmigración”.

“Rusia y Japón están en este momento más arriba de ese máximo y ya se ven consecuencias. China por otro lado, comenzará a declinar rápidamente en términos demográficos a partir del año 2030″. agrega.

“En América Latina ocurrirá un fenómeno similar, solo que con menor rapidez”.

El desafío de las ciudades sostenibles

Los investigadores advierten que las ciudades de más de 50 millones de personas son un desafío monumental para las autoridades, pensando en los servicios básicos y la infraestructura mínima requerida.

Proyectos de infraestructura como carreteras o la construcción de metros pueden demorar décadas antes de materializarse y la tasa de crecimiento suele ser más rápida que las posibles soluciones.

Otro de los efectos preocupantes del crecimiento urbano es que se verá afectado por el cambio climático y en el aumento del nivel del mar.

Disaeño digital de un tren rodeado de energía limpia.

Getty Images
Muchas de las ciudades no están preparadas para tener decenas de millones de habitantes.

De las 101 megaciudades analizadas, 47 están ubicadas en zonas costeras, incluyendo algunas de las más grandes, como Lagos, Dar es Salaam y Bombay.

Según como evolucionen las condiciones ambientales, es posible que partes del territorio queden bajo el agua.

Y dado que muchas ciudades en regiones como el Sur de Asia o África emergerán con fuerza, las urbes que actualmente dominan la lista de megaciudades caerán en el ranking al ser sobrepasadas por las emergentes.

Con todo, las proyecciones poblacionales pueden variar considerando cambios en las tasas de urbanización y desarrollo socioeconómico, la disponibilidad de recursos, la sostenibilidad, los conflictos, las guerras y los posibles desastres geofísicos y climáticos.

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