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Con AMLO, la gasolina podría subir el doble en sus primeros 3 años de gobierno

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Ciudad de México (El Universal).- El precio de las gasolinas puede subir más del doble en los primeros tres años del gobierno de Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), presidente electo de México, que en la administración federal de Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, considerado el padre de los gasolinazos.

 

En diversas ocasiones, el tabasqueño ha dicho que en su gestión no habrá gasolinazos, pero que el combustible va a aumentar en términos de la inflación.

 

“En tres años no habrá gasolinazos, pero no sólo eso, no aumentarán más allá de la inflación el gas, el diésel y la energía eléctrica, es mi compromiso”, dijo hace un mes.

 

Se trata de una estrategia similar a la aplicada en 2015 por el entonces titular de la Secretaría de Hacienda, Luis Videgaray, que consistía en actualizar la cuota del Impuesto Especial sobre Producción y Servicios (IEPS) conforme a la inflación.

 

“A partir de 2015, la gasolina solamente crecerá lo que crezca la inflación”, comentó Videgaray a principios de 2014.

 

Por su parte, Carlos Urzúa, quien será el secretario de Hacienda con López Obrador, declaró hace un mes: “Estamos pensando en incrementar cada año, por la inflación, el precio [de las gasolinas]. En términos reales no se va a incrementar, pero en términos nominales sí, por la inflación”.

 

Así, la inflación esperada volverá a ser determinante en el precio de las gasolinas a partir de 2019.

 

Urzúa anticipa una inflación entre 4% y 5% durante el primer año de gobierno de López Obrador, es decir, alrededor de 4.5%.

 

En tanto, especialistas en economía del sector privado consultados en julio por el Banco de México (Banxico) anticiparon que la inflación va a promediar 3.5% por año, en 2020 y 2021.

 

En caso de cumplirse estos pronósticos, López Obrador acumulará una inflación de 11.9% en los primeros tres años de su gobierno.

 

Considerando que el precio promedio de la gasolina Magna en México fue de 18.42 pesos por litro el mes pasado, este combustible puede llegar a costar 20.61 pesos para mediados del próximo sexenio, un incremento de 2.19 pesos o 11.9%.

 

Significa que el precio del combustible aumentará poco menos que en los primeros tres años del actual gobierno, cuando la Magna subió 2.76 pesos.

 

Sin embargo, la gasolina con López Obrador puede subir más del doble que en la primera mitad del gobierno de Felipe Calderón, cuando el litro aumentó 1.03 pesos.

 

Con Calderón surgieron los llamados gasolinazos, luego de que su gobierno, con el apoyo del Congreso de la Unión, autorizó aplicar alzas mensuales al precio de las gasolinas para eliminar de manera gradual el subsidio a los combustibles, cuyo costo ascendía a casi 270 mil millones de pesos en los primeros dos años de su administración.

 

A principios del gobierno de Calderón, llenar un tanque de 40 litros costaba 270 pesos con gasolina tipo Magna; en la actualidad cuesta 737 pesos y, de confirmarse la política que aplicará el nuevo gobierno, un usuario tendrá que desembolsar 824 pesos para cargar el mismo depósito en tres años.

 

López Obrador ha dicho que, a partir del tercer año de su gobierno, el precio de los combustibles comenzará a bajar.

 

“Después de los tres años que ya tengamos producción de gasolinas en México, porque vamos a rehabilitar las seis refinerías y a construir una para dejar de comprar en el extranjero, vamos a bajar los precios”, comentó el pasado 9 de julio.

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